With a single post, French President Emmanuel Macron changed everything, and nothing at all.
His late-evening announcement on X that France will recognize a Palestinian state in September, the first Western member of the United Nations Security Council and first G7 nation to do so, took many by surprise.
Although France’s recognition has been expected for several months now – indeed the brief Israel-Iran war forced a postponement of the summit on Israel-Palestine with Saudi Arabia and European allies that Paris had been shepherding – it was not expected to land like this.
The surprise announcement tells us two things.
Firstly, that Macron feels this is the time to act. Leaders from France, the UK and Germany are due to speak Friday to seek urgent action over the new lows of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
More than 1,000 Gazans have been killed desperately seeking food since May, dozens more from starvation itself.
Images of skeletal, starving Gazans, including children, have harked back to the darkest corners of the 20th century, stirring Western revulsion – if not yet concrete action – toward the humanitarian crisis.
Macron’s decision is a bold one – following a smattering of European allies: Ireland, Norway and Spain, along with around 140 other member states of the United Nations – but leading the way for other major international powers to follow suit.
“I’ve had other colleagues on the phone and I’m sure that we won’t be the only ones recognizing Palestine in September,” a senior official in the French presidency told CNN Thursday following Macron’s announcement.
Eyes will now likely turn to the UK, perhaps Germany too. The prospect of the United States, Israel’s closest ally even without a Trump presidency, seems impossible.
But for those on the ground, the French decision will likely change little.
The move was welcomed by Hamas as a “positive step.” For Israeli leaders, it didn’t go down well at all.
Recognition “rewards terror” said Israeli Prime Minister (and long-time opponent of a Palestinian state) Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday night, with other ministers arguing the move now justifies the official annexation of the West Bank – Judea and Samaria in the parlance of the Israeli far-right.
The sentiment was quickly echoed by the United States, which has found itself increasingly at odds from its western allies in Europe over Israel’s war in Gaza.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US “strongly rejects” Macron’s plan.
“This reckless decision only serves Hamas propaganda and sets back peace,” he wrote on X Thursday. “It is a slap in the face to the victims of October 7th.”
Even if international recognition could magically mete out concrete change for Gaza, the September deadline will come far too late for Palestinians starving to death under the Israeli-controlled blockade of food.
Philippe Lazzarini, the head of UNRWA, the main United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees, said Thursday that people in Gaza resembled “walking corpses” as starvation took hold.
All 2.1 million people in Gaza are now food insecure and on Tuesday, Gaza’s health ministry said 900,000 children are going hungry.
Some 70,000 children already show signs of malnutrition, they said.
France’s solo announcement also suggests a hint of desperation on Macron’s part.
He’s a man who likes a coalition on the world stage – strength in numbers is usually a winning strategy.
A month ago, the stage appeared set for France to recognize Palestine – a summit co-hosted with Saudi Arabia was planned in Riyadh from June 17 to 20. But when open conflict broke out between Israel and Iran on June 13, that plan was torn apart.
The expectation among experts was that France and Saudi Arabia would marshal other allies into a joint recognition – a strong signal to Jerusalem and Washington D.C. on the importance of the two-state solution and peace.
Macron may still have his win in September if allies join France’s recognition but it won’t have been without risking France’s diplomatic capital and cajoling more reluctant partners.
“The idea is to put a bit of pressure on other countries,” the senior French official told CNN.
And Macron’s decision holds weight.
European nations have proved stubbornly reluctant to formally act upon a two-state solution and recognize Palestinian statehood. Respect for the West’s ally Israel, distaste for the Islamist government in Gaza and the shortcomings of the West Bank’s Palestinian Authority, and an apparently acceptable decades-long status quo saw muted outrage at Israeli settlements and attacks on Palestinians, with little shift in international action.
France is now breaking that glass ceiling.
Within France, a country that has long held a sympathetic position toward the Palestinian cause, recognizing Palestinian statehood won’t be a controversial move.
Post-WWII leader Charles de Gaulle famously rallied France to the Palestinian people following the 1967 war, with Paris engaging with the Palestinian Liberation Organization for decades, even as terror attacks were committed in the group’s name on French soil.
In 2014, the French parliament called on the government to recognize Palestine, an appeal that the government backed at the United Nations Security Council in an unsuccessful vote to bring about Palestinian statehood by 2017.
France has long backed a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine based on the 1967 borders, although the Elysee source said that the French recognition would not specify the borders.
Macron staunchly backed Israel’s retaliation for the October 7 massacres but over time has hardened his criticism of Netanyahu and Israel’s conduct of the war.
Publicly, he worried about about “importing” the conflict into France, home to Europe’s largest community of Jews and Muslims.
But as casualties in Gaza mounted, France banned arms exports to Israel, orchestrated aid drops into the territory and repeatedly called for a ceasefire and access of humanitarian aid and journalists.
In taking this leap of faith, recognizing a Palestinian state ahead of France’s peers, the Elysee Palace is surely hoping for a domino effect of recognition across the West.
With aid still cruelly beyond the reach of ordinary Gazans, perhaps it’s a last ditch effort to bring some relief.
Correction: This story has been updated to clarify that France is the first Western member of the U.N. Security Council to recognize a Palestinian state.
