President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Russia to accept a peace deal in Ukraine within 50 days or face bruising sanctions on its energy exports has given the Kremlin extra time to pursue its summer offensive.
The dogged Ukrainian resistance, however, makes it unlikely that the Russian military will make any quick gains.
President Vladimir Putin has declared repeatedly that any peace deal should see Ukraine withdraw from the four regions that Russia illegally annexed in September 2022 but never fully captured. He also wants Ukraine to renounce its bid to join NATO and accept strict limits on its armed forces -– demands Kyiv and its Western allies have rejected.
A chronic shortage of manpower and ammunition has forced Ukrainian forces to focus on holding ground rather than launching counteroffensives.
But despite a renewed Russian push — and an onslaught of aerial attacks on Kyiv and other cities in recent weeks — Ukrainian officials and analysts say it remains unlikely that Moscow can achieve any territorial breakthrough significant enough in 50 days to force Ukraine into accepting the Kremlin’s terms anytime soon.
Since spring, Russian troops have accelerated their land gains, capturing the most territory in eastern Ukraine since the opening stages of Moscow’s full-scale operation in 2022.
Russian forces are closing in on the eastern strongholds of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka in the Donetsk region, methodically capturing villages near both cities to try to cut key supply routes and envelop their defenders — a slow offensive that has unfolded for months.
